Expected Goals (xG) Overperformers

Expected Goals (xG) Overperformers

Expected Goals xG determines the probability of a shot becoming a goal based on location, angle, and assist type - An xG of 05 means "50% of players score from here" - If you score, but the xG was 005, that is a "Wonder Goal" Elite finishers consistently score more than their xG predicts They are "Overperformers" The Messi Anomaly Since xG data became widely available approx 2014 via Opta/Understat: Lionel Messi is the greatest statistical outlier in history In many seasons, Messi overperformed his xG by +10 or +15 goals This means he scored 10-15 goals that an "average" striker would have missed He makes difficult chances look reliable His trademark curl into the bottom corner from outside